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 GeoExtreme
Geohazards, climate change and extreme weather events
Project webpage: www.geoextreme.no
In
cooperation with with three other Norwegian research institutes, ICG has
been awarded a R&D contract from the NORKLIMA- programme of The Research
Council of Norway. The "GeoExtreme"-project will evaluate the geohazard
risk in Norway over the next 50 year period.
The involved ICG partner organisations
are NGU and NGI. During a four year period, the project titled "GeoExtreme"
will spend a total of NOK 12.7 mill. (of which 10 mill is from the
Research Council) on evaluation of the geohazard risk in Norway over the
next 50 year period.
Geohazards are events related to geological features and processes that
cause loss of life and severe damage to property and the natural and
built environment. The most common and destructive in Norway are snow
avalanches, clay-, debris- and rock slides, and floods, which together
caused more than 2000 deaths during the last 150 years. Statistically,
about 10 large slides and avalanches are expected to occur in Norway the
next 50-100 years, each with possibly 20-100 deaths, unless preventive
planning and actions are made. In addition to the loss of lives,
geohazards pose a large impact on infrastructure and the daily life in
many parts of Norway. A possible increase of extreme weather events in
the next 50 years may lead to an increased slide frequency.
The project involves five different institutions, which also includes
two of the Norwegian Centres of Excellence in Research, covering a wide
range of natural and social sciences. These institutions are the
Geological Survey of Norway (NGU), Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI),
Bjerknes-Centre for limatic Research (BCCR) and Norwegian Meteorological
Institute (Met.no), and CICERO. NGI and NGU are both partners of the
International Centre for Geohazards (ICG).
 The
proposed research in the GeoExtreme project will define the
relationships between meteorological conditions and geohazards based on
historical records. We will produce high resolution climate and weather
scenarios for the next 50 years, and use these in assessing the
frequency and character of future geohazards events. This will be done
partly in selected case regions, covering a range of geohazards types,
geographic setting and degree of societal preparedness, but results will
also be extrapolated for Norway as a whole. An important part of the
project involves assessment of the socioeconomic consequences of
geohazards in Norway, both in the past, and in the future, under the
predicted climate scenarios. Important parameters here are cost related
to damage by natural disasters as well as to mitigation measures,
ability to learn by experience, changes in preparedness, and impact on
policy makers.
Bridging gaps between natural and social sciences is an important aspect
of the project. As slides and avalanches are an important part of
Norwegian daily life, and therefore receive significant public interest,
we also aim at reporting project results thorough frequent articles in
newspapers and popular science magazines, in addition to international
scientific journals.
Lars Harald Blikra from NGU and Anders Solheim from NGI/ICG will be
responsible for the project management.
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