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Vulnerability and risk assessment for geohazards

Earthquake hazard, risk and loss

Stability of rock slopes

Geomechanical modelling

Offshore geohazards

SafeLand (Landslide risk in Europe)

Slide dynamics

Tsunami modelling and prediction

Remote sensing, monitoring and early warning systems

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Application of GIT to geohazards

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Simulations of the Samoa tsunami 2009

IYPE projects related to ICG

www.snoskred.no
Norwegian snow avalanche website

2nd ICG Phd seminar
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Positive midway evaluation of ICG
 

 IGCP 511

Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences
 

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4th International Symposium
on Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences,
Austin Texas, 2009

EGU 2009

OTC Geohazard Session
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 Reports

Debris flow and river flooding 23 Aug 2005 in Paznauner Valley, Tirol, Austria

BAM Earthquake of 26th of December 2004

ECI Conference: Geohazards - Technical, Economical and Social Risk Evaluation

2nd International conference on Submarine Mass Movement and Their Consequences 2005

International Workshop 27th of September 2004 - Natural Disaster Hotspot

 

 ICG Partners







 
Project 4: Stability of rock slopes
Project manager: Reginald Hermanns (NGU)

Rock slope failures - Models and Risk
The project seeks to integrate the geological and geotechnical/geomechanical aspects of hazard and risk related to large rock-slope failures.


View towards the slide scar and the deposits of a large rock avalanche in Balsfjord, Troms, Norway

Project description

Overview

Themes

Recent results

Key personnel

NGU: Lars Blikra (project manager), Marc-Henri Derron, Ian Henderson,
NGI: Rajinder Bhasin, Ulrik Domaas,
Vidar Kveldsvik (PhD)
NTNU: Bjørn Nilsen, Guro Grøneng (PhD)
NORSAR:
Michael Roth
University of Bergen/NGU:
Alvar Braathen

International corporations

Geological Survey of Canada
ETH-Zürich
University of Milano


A large rock-slope failure at top of the Oppstadhornet mountain, west of Molde in Møre & Romsdal. The slide involves a volume of more than 20 million m3. Parts of the slide are active, and if the failure develops into a rock avalanche it will create damaging tsunamis.

Overview of the project

The project will focus on risk related to large rock-slope failures. Rock avalanches and related tsunamis represent one of the most serious natural hazards in Norway, and during the last 100 years more than 170 people have lost their lives only in northern West Norway. Also on a global basis, such events have caused major disasters.

The project seeks to integrate geological and geotechnical/geomechanical aspects of geohazard related to rock-slope failures, and is organized as a corporation between all the ICG partners. Two PhD students are integrated in the project, focusing on geological models, numerical modelling and kinematics of rock-slope failures. The projects so far have focused on the study of rock-slope failures in western and northern Norway, and include several aspects related to rock-slope failures and stability (Blikra et al., 2004; Braathen et al., 2004; Bhasin & Kaynia, 2004; Bhasin et al., 2004; Dahle, 2004; Panthi & Nilsen, in press).

The project personnel is also directly involved in projects related to risk analysis and investigations and monitoring of high-risk objects in the counties. Much of the work has been related to investigation and monitoring at the Åknes failure, were major external funding will be available. This will include geological and geophysical investigations, drilling with instrumentation and logging, installation of different monitoring systems and modelling approach both related to stability, slide dynamics and tsunamis.

Satellite data and swath bathymetry from Tafjord, showing the location of rock-avalanche deposits onshore and in the fjord.

Themes

A. Methods for quantification of rockslide hazard

The project use all available data that exists in Møre & Romsdal to evaluate methods for hazard assessments in a selected fjord area, including regional and more local hazard and risk zoning (e.g. Blikra et al., 2004). The projects will both evaluate methods for regional hazard zoning and for more detailed hazard and risk zg. The reoningional hazard zonation has been performed based on the spatial distribution and temporal pattern of events, and several dating methods have been employed. Further work is required on exposure dating. Secondly, a more detailed and quantitative zonation will be performed in a selected fjord area. This is mainly based on the frequency, age and size of events in defined areas. In addition, the run-out and tsunami potential needs to be taken into account.

Rock avalanche events and regional hazard zones in the Møre & Romsdal county, western Norway

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Illustration: Shaded relief model based on swath bathymetry data from Sunnylvsfjorden in Møre & Romsdal county, showing large rock-avalanche deposits.

The numbers indicate the volume of individual events in million m3. These type of data together with reflection seismics are the base for evaluating the hazard level (distribution, frequency and magnitude of events).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

B. Development of geological models for rock slopes

The most fundamental input for rock-slope failure assessment comes from the geological dataset. Hence, realistic models based on in-depth understanding of structures, 3D kinematics and stability related to friction (fractures, fault rock membranes) are crucial. The following topics will be focused on

  • Digital elevation models (DEM). DEM will be used to characterize structural patterns of importance for instability features (e.g. sliding planes and wedges). Recent technologies such as the airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) or the ground-based laser scan provide digital elevation models (DEM) with a submetric resolution. A high resolution DEM can be used to provide a first image of the phenomena: geometry and limits of the instability, main sets of discontinuities and their orientations, kinematic tests of planar sliding or wedge failure, and a first estimation of the volumes involved. These types of methods have already been tested on two Norwegian sites (Oterøya and Åknes) and new data from the Tafjord area are now available. This project will focus on two aspects: (1) the acquisition of ground-based and airborne laser scan data of rock slopes, and (2) the development of methods for a preliminary assessment based on a high resolution DEM.

A) orthophoto of the upper part of the Åknes landslide. The white line is the open fracture delimiting the top of the landslide. B) Color-DEM representation of the same area than in A with some slope measurements (dip direction/dip angle). The color coding is given in the stereographical projection on the right. C) Identification on the DEM of the cells having an orientation corresponding to the discontinuities J1, J2, or J3 (same area than in A); (illustration from Derron et al. in press).

  • 3D geometry of rock-slope failures. The focus will be on detailed investigations of slope-failures in order to identify diagnostic structures for such features. Mapping requires use of geophysical methods (2D resistivity, seismics) in order to identify deeper and sole structures. Drilling should also been performed if possible. Priority will be given to the localities Åkerneset and Oppstadhornet in Møre & Romsdal and Nordnes in Lyngen, Troms.


A 2D resistivity profile crossing a large rock-slope failure at Nordnes in Lyngen, Troms county. In general there are high resisitivity values, except for a nearly vertical zone showing distinct lower values (blue colours). This zone represents the major fractures in the upper part of the sliding mass, demonstrating that the slide is at least 100 m deep in the upper part..

  • Geo-mechanical uncertainties in rock slope stability assessment. Present consensus and numerical models for rock-slope stability, utilised in risk assessments, is based on shear-fracture characteristics. Ongoing outcrop studies on collapsing mountain-sides (e.g., Blikra et al. 2004; Braathen et al. 2004; Dahle, 2004) clarify that most rock-slope failure areas contain both (i) shear - and (ii) tension fractures, as well as a basal shear surface commonly covered with a membrane of crushed rock (fault breccia/gouge). The project will address uncertainties related to variables applied in numerical rock-slope stability models, including laboratory analysis (e.g., ring-shear study). Especially important is to establish the shear-strength relationships for unconsolidated, water saturated fault rocks along sliding planes and to establishing frictional relationships for large-displacement rock fractures in gneiss.


Profile illustrating a two-layer model for pre-avalanche deformation in a rock-slope failures area. Text-boxes describe factors an mechanical properties that have to be evaluated in stability assessments (from Braathen et al., 2004).

C. Stability analysis, including sensitivity and probabilistic analysis.

Major focus will be on stability analysis and modelling, and this will be highly integrated with the work on geological models. Discontinuum numerical modelling was performed for a 700 m high rock slope in western Norway (Oppstadhornet), in both static and dynamic rock slope stability analysis. One of the PhD studies (Vidar Kveldsvik) will be focused on numerical modelling, sensitivity and probabilistic analysis. The work will be concentrated on the Åkernes and Oppstadhornet sites. 

Especially important will be the analysis of uncertainties in Barton & Bandis parameters.  The collected geotechnical data from the field will be analysed statistically in order to determine variation associated with the parameters and assess the appropriate statistical distributions.  In the existing literature the slope stability analysis by numerical techniques and probabilistic methods are performed separately. This research, for the very first time, proposes to combine both the approaches so that they will benefit and compliment each other and will better explain the phenomenon.

Two master students at NTNU will also be integrated in the ICG project focusing on rock-slope stability in Nepal. Master students also focus on the Tafjord area.


Illustration: Displacement vectors and shear displacements (indicated by thick lines) of a jointed rock slope after initial static loading

D. Monitoring and deformation process (3D kinematics).

The understanding of the 3D kinematics (movement pattern) is of major importance for the evaluation of hazard and for numerical modelling. A PhD student (Guro Grøneng) will focus on creep and deformation processes, including 3D modelling. The project will use existing monitoring data, e.g. from the Åknes site in Møre & Romsdal, were automatic extensometers have been operating more than 10 years. Several new monitoring systems will be installed at this site during the next 2 years, and these data will be an essential part of these studies.

 

 

 

 

 


Movement measured by the extensometers at the Åknes failure.

E. Microseismic monitoring

Another monitoring method that was explored at the Åknes failure was passive microseismic monitoring. Microseismic events that are expected to be seen in unstable rock slope sites are events directly related to the mass movement (e.g. shear failures at the detachment plane, opening of fractures, etc) and second order events associated with rock falls, small-scale slides etc. The spatial and temporal distribution of microseismic events can provide valuable information on the internal structure and the dynamical behaviour of the slope. In a pilot study a temporary small-scale seismic network consisting of 6 geophones was installed during the summer/fall 2004. The main purpose of the pilot installation was to check, if we can see any seismic activity at all and to get an idea on the noise conditions.

Even with relatively insensitive geophones we observed more than 350 microseismic events during the monitoring period of 71 days. We considered signals as microseismic events, if they had a short duration (less than 5 sec) and if they could be observed on at least 4 geophones with a signal-to-noise ratio better than 2. Excluding positively identified man-made events we end up with a rate of about 3.5 microseismic events per day. The network was too small and the signal quality too poor to localize the seismic events accurately, but we could determine the direction of some of the strongest incoming signals. They are generated within the unstable part of the slope, downhill from the geophone network

For 2005 we plan to install a temporary network with larger aperture and more receivers. In the framework of the investigations of the Åknes site, boreholes will be drilled for direct sampling and for the instrumentation with different sensors. Depending on the progress of the drilling we might be able to install borehole seismometers at the end of the field campaign 2005, and set up a permanent network.


Examples of microseismic events recorded with the temporary network: (a) complex source (probably a rock fall); (b) event with clear P-and S-wave onsets; (c) ‘typical’ event representative for most of the observed events; (d) map view of the seismic network and directions of the strongest events

F. Rockslide dynamics and empirical modelling

Numerous rock avalanche events have been mapped in Norway, of which some exceed 100 million m3 in volume. Study of rock-avalanche processes, including slide dynamic and secondary processes related to slide impact, is important for tsunami modelling and for understanding run-out potential. The Norwegian rockslide examples will be excellent for developing new statistical models for run-out distance. The project will study a number of these sites as a base for development of an empirical run-out model for large rock avalanches.


View towards the slide scar and the deposits of a large rock avalanche in Balsfjord, Troms, Norway. The distinct slide scar demonstrates that the failure occurred along the foliation planes. The deposits show that the volume is more than 100 million m3, and with a run-out distance of 5 km.

Recent results

Publications

Anda, E., Blikra, L.H., & Braathen, A. 2002: The Berill fault - first evidence of neotectonic faulting in southern Norway. Norwegian Journal of Geology (NGT) 82, 175-182.

Blikra, L.H., Longva, O., Braathen, A. & Anda, E., Dehls, J. & Stalsberg, K. 2005: Rock-slope failures in Norwegian fjord areas: examples, spatial distribution and temporal pattern. In Evans, S.G., Scarawcia Mugnozza, G., Strom, A.L. & Hermanns, R.L. (eds.), Massive rock slope failure: new models for hazard assessment. Kluwer, Dodrecht (in press).

Braathen, A., Blikra, L.H., Berg, S.S. & Karlsen, F. (2004): Rock-slope failures of Norway; type, geometry, deformation mechanisms and stability. Norwegian Journal of Geology (NGT) 84, 67-88.

Bhasin, R. and Kaynia, A.M. (2004): Static and Dynamic Simulation of a 700 m High Rock Slope in Western Norway. International Journal of Engineering Geology 71, 213-226.

Bhasin, R., Kaynia, A., Blikra, L.H., Braathen, A. & Anda, E. (2004): Insights into the deformation mechanisms of a jointed rock slope subjected to dynamic loading. International Journal of Rock Mechanics &  Mining Sciences. 41

Derron, M.H., Jaboyodoff, M, & Blikra, L.H. 2005: Preliminary assessment of rockslide and rockfall hazards using a DEM (Oppstadhornet, Norway). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 5, 285-292.

Hermanns, R.L., Blikra, L.H., Naumann, M., Nilen, B., Panthi, K.K., Stromeyer, D. & Longva, O. 2005: Examples of multiple rock-slope collapses from Köfels (Ötz valley, Austria) and western Norway. Engineering Geology (in press).

Panthi K. K. and Nilsen B. (in press): Numerical Analysis of Stresses and Displacements for the Tafjord Slide, Norway. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment.

Reports

Bhasin, R. 2004: Rock slope failures – Models and risk. Stability analysis of rock slopes. ICG Report 2004-4-2

Lindholm, C. 2003: Site-specific hazard for three sites in Northwestern Norway. ICG Report

Roth, M. 2003: Report on seismic monitoring of rock slopes. ICG Report

Dahle, H. 2004: Analysis of Slope Stability at Opstadhornet (in Norwegian). Master thesis. Dept. of Geology and Mineral Resources Engineering, NTNU".

Domaas, U. 2004: Rock-slope failures – Models and Risk. Monitoring systems: ICG Report 20031093-1

International Centre for Geohazards (ICG), PoBox 3930 Ullevaal Stadion, N-0806 Oslo, Norway. Phone: +47-22023000, fax: +47-22230448